Ontario through the Crystal Ball

This paper is the text of an address delivered to Government of Ontario officials.  While asked to speak about possible future trends in Ontario, Michael Mendelson focused his remarks not on familiar trends related to demography and technology but rather on events that we expect may not happen – or at least not in the form we predict.  The paper considers three imminent threats of concern to Ontario.  The first stems from the deepening Euro crisis and whether it will precipitate another global financial meltdown.  The second threat is rooted in the economic policy paralysis in the US.  Third, Ontario should be concerned about a potential credit collapse if the world commodities bubble begins to deflate.  Even the so-called certain trends may result in surprise.  If there are substantial breakthroughs, for example, in health-related treatments and technologies, the future face of health care will change dramatically from what it is today.  In considering its future fiscal position, Ontario must pay close attention to the uncertain factors that loom large.

ISBN – 1-55382-538-1